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In its study released Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s figure of 50 % increase of the debt world since the crisis of 2008.
The rating agency S&P 500 looks to turn on the explosion of the world debt, public and private, since the financial crisis. She arrives at the finding of a higher risk and a degradation of the credit quality of the issuers. But concluded that it was a contagion effect systemic rather tenuous.
In its study released Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s figure of 50 % increase of the debt world since the crisis of 2008. It now exceeds 230% of GDP, compared to 208 % ten years earlier. The study foresees a deterioration of credit risk, the lower liquidity of the debt securities and the decrease of the protection of investors.
By segment, the thrust of the public debt since 2008 has mainly been felt in advanced economies, a performance largely influenced by the jump of the debt of the United States.
In business, growth has been strongest in the emerging markets, leading chinese companies.
At the other end of the spectrum, the financial sector has lowered significantly its leverage, particularly problematic in 2008. For their part, households have instead taken the path of debt reduction, the weight being reduced to 59 % of global GDP, as against 65 % in 2008.
This allocation of debt translates into a risk of contagion of a possible crisis of the debt is lower today. The rating agency specifies, however, that this may result in an increase in the credit risk for the investor.
On the one hand, in reaction to the general weakness in yields, they have recovered more of the debt securities issued in markets less liquid and more volatile. On the other hand, “the credit risk has deteriorated, including within the category of institutional investment, where the ratings are much more concentrated in the category of triple “B -” ten years ago “, one reads in a text to Reuters.
Last February 25, the Organization of economic cooperation and development (OECD) made the same observation, focusing, however, on the debt world business. At the end of 2018 and is net of inflation, the world’s total outstanding debt was two times higher than before the crisis. If it has been multiplied by four in the emerging countries, it remains that 80 % come from issuers comprising the economies of the rich.
The OECD warned, however, that the credit quality of these issuers is its more around the triple B, a note in which one enters into the category of the speculative. In 2008, 30 % of new obligations were at limit to receive the label of junk. This proportion was 54 % at the end of 2018.