The growth of the world leaded by the tension

La croissance mondiale plombée par les tensions

Photo: Justin Sullivan Getty images Agence France-Presse
The following tariffs adopted in particular by the United States, the world trade has already “slowed sharply” and “new orders measured in many countries continue to decline,” notes the OECD.

The growth of the world economy will be only about 3.3% in 2019 because of trade tensions and political uncertainties, provides for the OECD, which forecast 3.5% in November, in its latest report published on Wednesday.

The Organization of economic cooperation and development, explains this new brake by ” the rise of political uncertainties, trade tensions persisted, and a continuous decrease in the confidence of businesses and consumers.” The growth has been revised downwards in almost all G20 economies, in particular for the euro area where it would be limited to 1 % from 1.8 % projected in the previous quarter. For 2020, the growth of the euro area is expected to be 1.2 %, which is also a shot of a plane of 0.4 percentage point compared to the last forecast.

Within the euro area, the slowdown was particularly brutal this year for Germany (0.9 percentage points to 0.7 %) and Italy (1.1 percentage points to 0.2 %). France is a lot better (- 0.3 point to 1.3 %), because its economy is less export-dependent. The United Kingdom sees on its anticipated growth reduced to 0.8 %, against 1.4 % previously expected. But it is without counting with the effects of a “Brexit” without agreement, a prospect more and more real as we approach the 29th of march, date of departure from the EU.

In Canada, the growth forecast for 2019 was revised lower, to 1.5 %, against 1.8% in 2018. The GDP is expected to grow by 2 % in 2020.

The following tariffs adopted in particular by the United States, the world trade has already “slowed sharply” and ” new orders measured in many countries continue to decline “, note even the OECD. Previously, the only barriers erected in 2018 ” weigh on growth, investment and living standards, especially for low-income households “.

If China sneezes, we all catch a cold

— Laurence Boone

The organization also stresses that the activity planetary is particularly exposed to a slowdown would be more pronounced than expected in China, where it projects a growth of 6.2 % this year (compared to 6.3 % last November) and 6 % in 2020 (unchanged). “Trade tensions are weighing increasingly on exports and industrial production” in the world’s second largest economy, notes the OECD.

The debt accumulated by the emerging countries and by China in particular is also a source of concern, because “a large part of this debt must be repaid or refinanced over the next three years,” pointed out Laurence Boone, chief economist of the OECD, who recalled that the debt of non-financial enterprises in China amounted to 155% of the GDP, ” this is colossal “.

The organization has simulated the effect that would have on the global economy, a slowdown in chinese more than expected : a fall of two percentage points of the GDP growth in China amputerait the global growth of 0.4 of a percentage point. “If China sneezes, we all catch a cold “, has summarized the chief economist of the OECD. Japan, other east Asian countries, producers of raw materials, as well as Germany would be particularly affected.

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